India Shelves Third Aircraft Carrier Plan, Prioritises Nuclear Submarines

        image credit :bharatkarnad

After years of debate and shifting priorities, the Indian Navy appears to have set aside its long-standing ambition to operate three aircraft carriers. The focus has now decisively shifted toward enhancing India’s undersea warfare capability by investing in nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs).

Currently, India fields two operational aircraft carriers: INS Vikramaditya, acquired from Russia and commissioned in 2013, and the indigenous INS Vikrant, which joined service in 2022. The original vision of maintaining three carriers was based on the logic of always having two active—one on each coast—while the third undergoes maintenance or refit.

However, this concept has now been sidelined. According to reports, the proposed second unit of the Vikrant-class—once expected to be the third carrier—will now be considered a replacement for the ageing INS Vikramaditya rather than an addition to the fleet.

This shift aligns with India’s evolving maritime doctrine, changing strategic imperatives, and budgetary constraints. It also follows the greenlighting of Project 76, a long-anticipated indigenous SSN development programme aimed at strengthening India’s undersea deterrence.

Aircraft carriers are expensive to build and maintain. INS Vikramaditya alone has required ₹1,207 crore ($145 million) in refits. A new carrier could cost upwards of $3 billion, not including the aircraft, support ships, and infrastructure required to operate it.

Operational challenges have also influenced the decision. INS Vikramaditya and its MiG-29K fighters have been plagued with maintenance issues, while the complexity of managing multiple carriers with varying standards has further highlighted the difficulties of sustaining a three-carrier doctrine.

By contrast, SSNs offer stealth, endurance, and survivability. Unlike carriers, they can remain submerged for months, are less vulnerable to anti-ship missiles and drones, and require smaller operational footprints. These advantages make them ideal tools for sea denial and power projection in contested waters like the Indo-Pacific.

This doctrinal pivot also reflects global trends. Major navies, including those of the US and China, are expanding their submarine fleets to counter growing asymmetric and technological threats.

India’s decision also factors in its growing concerns over China’s naval presence, particularly in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). With bases like Djibouti and a robust fleet of conventional and nuclear submarines, China’s strategic footprint continues to expand. India sees SSNs as a potent counterbalance.

The Navy is expected to retain two aircraft carriers for now, while shifting substantial investment toward augmenting its submarine force. With six Kalvari-class submarines already inducted and Project 75-I moving ahead with German collaboration, India is actively rebuilding its underwater fleet.

The carrier replacement timeline also looms. INS Vikramaditya, though designed for a 30-year lifespan, is proving expensive and complex to maintain. Naval experts believe she may need decommissioning well before 2040, necessitating timely planning for a successor vessel—possibly a modified Vikrant-class variant.

A proposed future carrier, INS Vishal, was to be a 65,000-ton CATOBAR platform with advanced systems. However, the plan has stalled due to cost and feasibility challenges. If revived, it might only enter service decades later—possibly as a future replacement for INS Vikrant itself.

Maritime analysts highlight the benefits of a “P-71A”—a second Vikrant-class carrier with enhancements like modern aircraft lifts and drone launch capabilities. Such a vessel could be developed in a decade, offering a pragmatic bridge between today’s requirements and future ambitions.

Despite this shift, the debate over aircraft carriers is far from settled. Critics argue that focusing solely on submarines may jeopardize power projection and erode hard-won expertise in carrier construction and operations.

Supporters of a balanced approach say India, as a rising economic and geopolitical power, must eventually maintain both robust carrier and submarine fleets. A $5–7 trillion economy, they argue, should be able to support at least one new SSN and one carrier over the next decade.

Naval veterans like Cmde Anil Jai Singh underscore the need for maritime power to secure vital sea lanes that support global trade and energy supply chains. Carriers, while vulnerable, remain unmatched in projecting power and humanitarian reach during peace and conflict alike.

Ultimately, India’s decision reflects a pragmatic response to current constraints while keeping future options open. The Navy is adapting to regional realities, embracing a doctrine that balances visible deterrence with silent dominance beneath the waves.

As geopolitical pressures grow in the IOR, India's naval roadmap will continue to evolve—driven by operational realities, fiscal prudence, and the need to secure strategic autonomy in one of the world’s most contested maritime regions.

Written by Defence Expert