India’s Fighter Jet Crunch: What AI Recommends For IAF's Airpower Revival
As India confronts growing aerial threats and a shrinking combat fleet, a classified report submitted by the Defence Secretary to the Ministry of Defence has outlined the urgent need to revamp the Indian Air Force (IAF). With sanctioned squadron strength fixed at 42, the IAF operates with only about 31 fighter squadrons today—a serious shortfall in light of simultaneous threats from both China and Pakistan.
While the report remains under wraps, we turned to some of the world’s most advanced AI models to draft a practical, tech-informed roadmap for IAF's modernization. Their strategic insights, grounded in defence and industrial trends, lay out a phased but decisive recovery path for India's air superiority.
1. Accelerate Indigenous Fighter Induction
The AI consensus strongly advocates for faster delivery and expansion of the Tejas Mk1A program. HAL must scale up production from 16 to at least 24 jets per year by 2026, with private firms like Tata and L&T supporting component assembly.
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Target: 180 Tejas Mk1A jets by 2029
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Outcome: Replaces retiring MiG-21s, forms 10 new squadrons
Simultaneously, the Tejas Mk2—a medium-weight successor—must enter testing by 2027 and serial production by 2030, contributing 6 squadrons by 2035.
2. Expand Rafale Fleet for Immediate Punch
To bridge the current shortfall, AI recommends placing an order for 36–54 more Rafales under a fast-tracked government-to-government deal. This leverages existing infrastructure, training pipelines, and proven battlefield utility.
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Target: 3 additional Rafale squadrons by 2030
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Outcome: Expands high-end multi-role strike capacity, ideal for northern and eastern sectors
3. Streamline and Reduce Scope of MRFA Program
Rather than chasing the full 114-aircraft tender, AI suggests trimming the MRFA requirement to around 57 aircraft, selected through a simplified G2G deal, preferably involving proven platforms like Rafale, F-15EX, or Gripen E.
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Target: Induction of 3 squadrons by 2035
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Outcome: Avoids procurement delays while encouraging local assembly
4. Adapt TEDBF Into IAF’s Twin-Engine Fighter
The Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF), designed for naval carriers, could be converted into an air force variant—ORCA (Omni-Role Combat Aircraft). The AI models propose a fast-tracked adaptation for the IAF with 72–90 aircraft.
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Target: First flight by 2028, production by 2033
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Outcome: Adds 5 squadrons of indigenous twin-engine capability by 2040
5. Push AMCA To Become Future Backbone
India's 5th-generation fighter program, AMCA, must receive uninterrupted funding and international collaboration for engines, stealth tech, and avionics.
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Target: First flight by 2028, serial production by 2035
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Outcome: 7 squadrons by 2045, with Mk2 scaling up beyond 2040
6. Upgrade Existing Su-30MKI Fleet
With nearly 260 Su-30MKIs in service, AI proposes accelerated upgrades—adding AESA radar, advanced EW systems, and indigenous weapons like Astra Mk2.
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Outcome: 13+ modernized squadrons sustained until 2040
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Additional Step: Procure 18–24 more Su-30MKIs from HAL to replace attrition losses
7. Integrate Drone Systems and Force Multipliers
To reduce burden on manned platforms, AI emphasizes the rapid induction of drones like Archer, Heron TP, and the indigenous CATS Warrior. This should be paired with faster AEW&C and refueller acquisition.
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Outcome: Improved ISR, deep strike, and battle-space management across theatres
Squadron Strength Roadmap
| Year | Projected Squadrons | Key Inductions |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31 | Tejas Mk1A begins |
| 2028 | 35+ | 2 Rafale, 6 Tejas Mk1A |
| 2032 | 40 | 6 MRFA, 6 Tejas Mk2 |
| 2035 | 42 | AMCA Mk1 enters service |
| 2040 | 45+ | AMCA Mk2, 5 ORCA Squadrons |
Strategic Takeaways From AI
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Speed Over Perfection: Expedite programs under strategic partnership or G2G route.
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Balance Indigenous & Foreign: Indigenous production (Tejas, AMCA, ORCA) must go hand-in-hand with selective foreign buys.
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Reduce Platform Diversity: Fewer fighter types streamline maintenance and logistics.
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Private Sector Role: Scale production with HAL, Tata, L&T, and Adani as key partners.
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Future-Ready Doctrine: Develop stealth, unmanned, and high-end avionics integration as core focus areas for next-gen warfare.
India’s fighter fleet challenge is real—but solvable. With a clear-eyed execution plan and better industry-military coordination, the IAF can recover from its current crunch and fly confidently into the future.
Written by Defence Expert
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